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Decisions Made Easy
The Decision Expert Newsletter™ - Volume 3; Issue 1 - January 2008Have you ever wanted a good way to select the best concept, to decide whether to make or buy, or choose the best proposal? There is a new, free web application that can help you do these and other tasks. It is easy to use and generates a report for later reference. Instant Decision© is a free application that runs in Microsoft Internet Explorer (5.0 or newer). It is a fully functional decision support tool that helps you evaluate two alternatives against each other using a set of supplied criteria. You determine what is important to you and evaluate the options using a graphical interface. Instant Decision helps you choose the best option and gives you a report documenting your deliberation. For example, say you have to make a decision about whether to make an assembly in-house or buy it from a vendor. You could make this decision on cost alone, but this is a weak approach. To use Instant Decision to support your deliberation go to the Instant Decision page and select Make versus Buy Decisions from the list of tools available.
This single browser screen is all that is needed. In the top-center describe the problem as, for example: "Choose whether to make the Gamma assembly or buy it from Stoval International". Along the left side are the criteria you can use to evaluate the options. There are 11 criteria that should be considered in deciding whether to make or buy. In Instant Decision these can be reordered by dragging the most important to the top. In the screen shot detail below "Higher product life cost stability" is most important with "Higher product quality" next. The first one is highlighted as it is selected to be reordered or evaluated. Additionally, for each criterion, there is a detailed definition below the list to guide your evaluation.
Evaluation is done on a Belief Map™. Each criterion is represented by a dot and the dot is dragged to a location that represents the relative evaluation of make versus buy. The statement over the Belief Map shows that the current dot (#3 – with a black highlight to show that it is the one selected) represents "Make has Higher product life cost stability than Buy". The dot is positioned to show that it is closer to yes than maybe and the evaluator is fairly certain about the evaluation.
The rationale for this assessment is entered below the Belief Map. This will appear in the final report. The results are shown on a bar graph. Based on the evaluation data shown on the Belief Map, there is a 67% chance that Make is the best decision. This value is calculated using state-of-the-art decision support analysis methods. The rationale for the final decision is entered to the right of the bar graph. It too becomes part of the final report.
More details about the use of Instant Decision and Belief Maps are available within the tool. If your problem is more complex, you have more than two alternatives to consider, or a team to coordinate, there is also a new, inexpensive application that provides richer capability. See Accord Decision Professional. Current free Instant Decision tools are:
If you have an idea for another Instant Decision tool, submit it to Robust Decisions by April 30, 2008, and have your idea entered into a drawing for an iPod Nano. Just send an email to support@robustdecisions.com with <Nano> in the subject line and include the following information:
Avoid the blunders that plague many decisions in today's business and engineering environments through the development of some simple "decision habits." The new book, Making Robust Decisions, presents a simplified approach to helping individuals and organizations establish better decision processes. Learn more by selecting the link below for more information. Are you ready to improve the decision-making in your organization? Robust Decisions offers a full range of products and services that allow you to benefit by making the best decision every time. Learn more about how to build a strong foundation that enables individuals, teams and entire organizations to consistently make the best possible decisions. Request more information or call 541.758.5088. 
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