|
Trade studies are essentially decision-making exercises. In the FAA Systems Handbook (FAA 2004), the decision analysis matrix (aka Pugh's method) is suggested to support the activities, but this method cannot support uncertainty, a mix of quantitative and qualitative information, or teams. To manage uncertainty, the authors suggest supplementing point estimates of the outcome variables for each alternative with computed or estimated uncertainty ranges.
The NASA Systems Engineering Handbook (NASA 1995) suggests using multi-attribute utility theoretic (MAUT). But, this too is not good with uncertainty, mixed information and teams. The authors suggest using probability based methods to maximize utility when uncertainty predominates, but give little detail on how to approach this.
Another approach to supporting trade study information is to use the Bayesian Team Support (BTS) methods. These methods were designed to manage uncertain and evolving information. A paper describing this design trade-off approach can be found in a technical paper Trade Studies with Uncertain Information. You can read an introduction to the trade-off theory behind this paper.
|